Following an examination of a 100 vote sample conducted by the
Arizona GOP, analysis by National File has concluded Biden’s lead
in the state could drop down to 0.19% of the total votes cast.
On Wednesday, Arizona GOP Chair Dr Kelli Ward revealed the
results of the examination of a 100 vote sample that they had
conducted, after being
granted access to the ballots by Judge Randall Warner. The
votes examined in this batch were reduplicated ballots, in that
they are a copy made from an original vote when it cannot be
tabulated. This copying is meant to be done by a bipartisan team of
county workers, which Ward alleges did not happen in many
cases.
In the 100 vote batch, two votes were discovered that were of
concern. Arizona
GOP lawyer Jack Wilenchik wrote in a court filing that one
original ballot contained “was clearly a vote for Trump,” but
the “duplicate ballot switched the vote to Biden,” while a
second Trump vote was completely discarded, due to the duplicate
ballot also including a “blank” vote for a write-in
presidential candidate.
In today’s update, Chairwoman
@kelliwardaz
announces the findings from our investigation of 100 duplicate
ballots, in which TWO votes were discovered to have been altered
and removed from President @realDonaldTrump‘s
total. pic.twitter.com/6Dg9zd2XGd— Arizona Republican Party (@AZGOP)
December 2, 2020
“Thank goodness that Judge Warner said he wanted to err on the
side of transparency and let us look at these,” Ward said in a
video released to Twitter. “Those media propagandists who say
there is no evidence of fraud can now shut up.”
“It looks like this election has attempted to have been stolen
from President Trump,” Ward added, noting that the attorneys for
Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and the Biden electors
wanted the results of the examination to be kept secret. “This
shows us that these Democrats are anti-transparency, and
potentially covering up fraud,” Ward continued. “We will not
stop looking until all of this is brought to light.”
National File has undergone an exclusive and extensive
mathematical analysis to discover what the total vote count, and
therefore Biden’s Arizona lead, may look like if the findings of
this sample size can be extrapolated to state level. It is unknown
how many ballots required duplication, as the statewide canvass did
not specify this. National File is therefore
using the pre-election estimate of Maricopa County, which
suggested they may see around a 2-4% reduplication rate.
Before entering the analysis, it is important to note that we
will be using the total votes cast in the state for all candidates
as our starting number, (3,397,388), rather than the total votes
cast for Trump and Biden together, as we are assuming that the 100
vote sample was a fair sample, and was therefore likely to include
votes for other candidates. The initial vote sample returned a rate
of 2% of the votes in the sample being meant to cast for Trump that
were not.
There are also two types of vote change happening here. Biden
currently leads Trump by 10,457 votes. The vote not counted for
President Trump would remove one vote from him, and the vote that
was initially given to Biden, but returned from Trump, would reduce
the total vote difference by two, as it removes one away from
Biden, and giving one more to Trump. We will therefore be
multiplying the total error votes in our calculation by 1.5 to
correct for this. This is equivalent to a 3% change.
Using the 2% lower bound reduplication rate from Maricopa
County, 1,359 ballots would have been counted in error. Assuming
the split between Trump votes purely lost and Trump votes given to
Biden remained the same in the sample, then Biden’s lead would
drop down by 2,038 votes to 8,419.
When using the 4% upper bound reduplication rate, 2,718 ballots
would have been cast in error. Assuming the same split as before,
this would reduce Biden’s lead in Arizona down by 4,077 votes to
6,380. This lead is 0.19% of all total votes cast in Arizona.
However, it is reasonable to assume the reduplication rate could
be far higher than the pre-election estimates from Maricopa. During
the election integrity hearing in Arizona on Monday, Trump lawyer
Rudy Giuliani and expert witness Colonel Phil Waldron
referred to a witness who saw all day “election officials
constantly pressing the green button [on the voting machine] when
somebody was voting.”
This green button in question is the one that is pressed when an
error ballot is needed to be created, and the votes would then be
“put into a batch file that could be adjudicated.” To be “put
into a batch file” is simply another term for being
electronically reduplicated. If this button was being pressed
“all day,” all across the state, then it is not unreasonable to
suggest a higher reduplication rate than expected.
Using the figures from our Arizona analysis, President Trump
would only need a reduplication rate of 10.3% to flip the state
back to him, winning by a vote lead of 41 votes. However, to win
Arizona, President Trump would only need this to be the case if no
other fraud or voting irregularities are discovered.
Colonel Waldron linked the reduplication of ballots to the
SharpieGate controversy, where Republican leaning voters were
instructed to use Sharpies, not ballpoint pens when voting. “The
idea is that [there would be] bleedthrough on the ballot, [and
therefore] the scanners would cause an error ballot,” Waldron
said.
Arizona Representative Dr. Paul Gosar extrapolated the 3% vote
change discovered and reasonably hypothesized this to be the rate
of fraud seen throughout the state for Biden – not an
unreasonable assumption when the votes discovered were so
apparently blatantly changed. “If the 3% fraud rate remains on a
larger sample, Trump easily wins Arizona,” Dr. Gosar tweeted.
2. The audit found: one Trump
vote arbitrarily excluded. Another Trump vote struck and then
fraudulently added to Biden. Total fraud averaging 3%. Biden margin
of fraud less than .05%. Thus if 3% fraud rate remains on larger
sample Trump easily wins Arizona. @ali @Cernovich— Paul Gosar (@DrPaulGosar)
December 3, 2020
Maricopa County on Wednesday
offered a further 2,500 additional duplicated ballots for the
Arizona GOP to look through. This further analysis will likely
change the percentages originally discovered from what Ward
admitted was a “very, very small” initial sample.
The Arizona GOP announced that it will be posting another
“big” update on Thursday, according to an announcement posted
on their Twitter page.
Wow, another BIG update
tomorrow!— Arizona Republican Party (@AZGOP)
December 2, 2020
President Trump seemed to reference a large number of voting
irregularities, potentially tied to SharpieGate, that could have
led to a larger than usual number of adjudicated ballots.
