Americans in several states across the country – particularly in Virginia and New Jersey – vote Tuesday in the biggest election since last year’s presidential election and before the upcoming midterm congressional elections in November 2022. Voters in Virginia and New Jersey are voting on who they want to be their next governors, as well as on several important down-ticket offices.
Virginia’s gubernatorial race has gotten very competitive in the final weeks, as Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin has surged in polling, riding a focus on cultural issues like standing up for parents in battles with school boards and educators. Democrat Terry McAuliffe, Virginia’s former governor who is seeking a comeback as the state term limits governors to just one consecutive term, aims to keep the governor’s mansion in the Old Dominion in Democrat hands. McAuliffe handed the job off to outgoing Gov. Ralph Northam, another Democrat who has been plagued throughout his time as governor with scandals, particularly after old yearbook photos emerged of him in racist garb. While Northam originally claimed he was one of the two people in the picture – in Ku Klux Klan robes or in blackface – without specifying, he later claimed he was not either. Nonetheless, Northam held onto his job and weathered the scandal. Tuesday, voters will answer the question of whether McAuliffe can hang on for the Democrats and win back his old job or if the people of Virginia are ready to swing the pendulum back the other way after 12 years since the last GOP win statewide in the state.
Down-ticket, voters will also elect a new Lieutenant Governor and a new Attorney General in Virginia, and the majority control of the state House of Delegates is up for grabs as well.
Voters in New Jersey also will decide on whether Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy will get a second term or if Republican Jack Ciattarelli will unseat him. While polls did tighten a bit in the final weeks, Murphy is viewed as in a stronger position than McAuliffe down in Virginia.
In Ohio, a special election will again test former President Donald Trump’s strength in the rust belt as voters will elect a successor to former Rep. Steve Stivers (R-OH) in the 15th district. Democrats have been creeping in quietly here behind their candidate Allison Russo – President Joe Biden endorsed her in the final days – but this district has been reliably Republican. It remains to be seen if the last-second sneak attack from Democrats can flip this seat or if the GOP will hang on.
Elsewhere in America, interesting mayor’s races, ballot referenda, local elections, and more could prove particularly newsworthy as voters decide the fate of many major issues in Tuesday elections ahead of next year’s midterms.
Follow along here for live updates as America votes in the first regularly scheduled election since Biden took over the White House and for news and analysis about the results and trends and takeaways.
UPDATE 6:48 p.m. ET:
Some, like the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, are suggesting before the polls close that turnout seems to favor the Republican, Youngkin, as it’s higher in redder areas of Virginia than in bluer areas:
As strong as turnout has been in blue areas, red areas looking even higher. Rockingham Co. (Trump +40) now up to 116% of its ’17 turnout, w/ three hours left to go. By comparison, Charlottesville (Biden +73) is at only 89% of its ’17 turnout. https://t.co/dDG3cBBA30
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
It is as of now unclear whether this red surge will be enough for Youngkin to defeat McAuliffe though:
To be clear, Charlottesville is not representative of all blue areas. For example, Falls Church (Biden +64) was at 102% of its ’17 total at 4pm.
But as expected, Rs are seeing a big enthusiasm surge vs. ’17. Whether it’s enough for Youngkin, we’ll see. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
The New York Times’s Nate Cohn has a decent breakdown, too, of what to make of early voting:
Final advance voting update: the 1.1 million voters who cast early/mail ballots probably backed Biden with around 63% of the vote in 2020, according to estimates based on voter file data and NYT/Siena polls from 2017-2020
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2021
It’s important to note that’s the proportion that voted for Biden, not McAuliffe. We can reasonably infer that McAuliffe will win this vote, but whether it’s 58% or 63 will depend on the size of the crossover vote.
That said, all seem consistent with ’21 polling on early voting— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2021
OTOH, if Youngkin got no crossover vote in early voting, -then McA would win 63% of early votes and Youngkin would need to win by 16 points on Election Day to prevail
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2021
UPDATE 6:40 p.m. ET:
Exit polls in Virginia show that Republican Glenn Youngkin has an 18-point favorability rating advantage among voters over Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
Virginia Exit Poll:
Youngkin:
Favourable: 53%
Unfavourable: 44%
Net: +9%McAuliffe:
Favourable: 44%
Unfavourable: 53%
Net: -9%– MSNBC Exit –
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) November 2, 2021
In preliminary exit polls we received from our network ABC, just 44% of Virginia voters interviewed see Democratic candidate for governor Terry McAuliffe favorably vs. 53% unfavorable. Republican Glenn Youngkin is the reverse, 53% favorable vs 44% unfavorable. #Elections2021
— Tom Roussey (@tomroussey7news) November 2, 2021
But Democrats are expressing confidence before the polls close:
“I wouldn’t be surprised if things don’t quite shape up the way the polls have suggested, if some of what we’re seeing this early is accurate,” Julian Castro reacts to first exit polling from Virginia. pic.twitter.com/adPooOXwxb
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 2, 2021
The exit polls also show the economy is the number one issue, followed by coronavirus and education:
VIRGINIA EXIT POLLS via @CBSNewsPoll: ISSUES IMPORTANT TO VOTERS: ECONOMY AND JOBS TOPS THE LIST. Roughly a 1/3rd of voters said it’s most important issue facing Virginia, followed by education (about 1/4), taxes and the coronavirus.
— Ed O’Keefe (@edokeefe) November 2, 2021
This piece from John Carney, Breitbart News’s economics editor, has more on the exit polling in Virginia and the significance of the economy being the biggest issue.
